1 00:00:03,699 --> 00:00:06,831 [light percussive music] 2 00:00:06,832 --> 00:00:09,269 ♪ 3 00:00:09,270 --> 00:00:11,271 - Onto today's topic. 4 00:00:11,272 --> 00:00:14,056 Why do we learn the wrong lessons 5 00:00:14,057 --> 00:00:17,842 from low probability events? 6 00:00:17,843 --> 00:00:21,063 Take texting and driving. 7 00:00:21,064 --> 00:00:22,499 We know it's a bad idea. 8 00:00:22,500 --> 00:00:26,764 So why do so many of us still take that risk? 9 00:00:26,765 --> 00:00:28,549 - Because we're irrational 10 00:00:28,550 --> 00:00:30,768 in some way you're about to tell us. 11 00:00:30,769 --> 00:00:32,074 - [laughs] OK, OK. 12 00:00:32,075 --> 00:00:33,597 I walked right into that. 13 00:00:33,598 --> 00:00:35,164 But she's right. We are. 14 00:00:35,165 --> 00:00:41,518 Imagine the actual risk of crashing while texting is 2%. 15 00:00:41,519 --> 00:00:43,781 And every time you don't crash, 16 00:00:43,782 --> 00:00:49,091 you update your internal risk barometer. 17 00:00:49,092 --> 00:00:51,224 After a while, you feel so secure 18 00:00:51,225 --> 00:00:53,878 that you're texting even more. 19 00:00:53,879 --> 00:00:59,058 This, my friends, is called the faulty learning cycle. 20 00:00:59,059 --> 00:01:01,495 Our real risk never drops, 21 00:01:01,496 --> 00:01:03,062 but our feelings about that risk, 22 00:01:03,063 --> 00:01:08,589 based on our limited experience with crashing, lie to us. 23 00:01:08,590 --> 00:01:12,636 So the next time you get away with texting and driving, 24 00:01:12,637 --> 00:01:15,596 remember, you got lucky. 25 00:01:15,597 --> 00:01:18,164 And you could always use my method, 26 00:01:18,165 --> 00:01:22,907 which is rarely text and never drive. 27 00:01:22,908 --> 00:01:25,780 [laughter] 28 00:01:25,781 --> 00:01:27,216 - That's a let. 29 00:01:27,217 --> 00:01:28,739 Ball grazed the net. We both saw it. 30 00:01:28,740 --> 00:01:30,219 - Did we? 31 00:01:30,220 --> 00:01:32,569 Or is your terror at facing an opponent of my stature 32 00:01:32,570 --> 00:01:35,006 distorting your ocular input? 33 00:01:35,007 --> 00:01:36,182 - Sorry to call again. 34 00:01:36,183 --> 00:01:37,487 It's my first day back with Dr. Mercer, 35 00:01:37,488 --> 00:01:40,316 and I need my access restored to his server. 36 00:01:40,317 --> 00:01:42,666 - Oh, sorry, Phoebe. 37 00:01:42,667 --> 00:01:43,754 Also, hello. 38 00:01:43,755 --> 00:01:45,104 Welcome back. 39 00:01:45,105 --> 00:01:48,324 Uh, let me just-- 40 00:01:48,325 --> 00:01:50,935 - I suppose you want your old spot back, huh? 41 00:01:50,936 --> 00:01:52,459 - No, it's OK. 42 00:01:52,460 --> 00:01:56,202 Uh, I'm good here, under the AC vent. 43 00:01:56,203 --> 00:01:58,029 You two keep working. 44 00:01:58,030 --> 00:01:59,248 - Hm. 45 00:01:59,249 --> 00:02:01,163 Phoebe doesn't feel it yet. 46 00:02:01,164 --> 00:02:02,730 - The power of the preemptive break. 47 00:02:02,731 --> 00:02:03,992 How could she? 48 00:02:03,993 --> 00:02:05,776 We only just stumbled upon it. 49 00:02:05,777 --> 00:02:08,344 Studies show breaks at work enhance productivity, right? 50 00:02:08,345 --> 00:02:10,999 But starting the day with a break... 51 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,001 that's something only a Mercer-nary could figure out. 52 00:02:13,002 --> 00:02:14,785 - A Mercer-nary? - Mm-hmm. 53 00:02:14,786 --> 00:02:15,830 [phone rings] 54 00:02:15,831 --> 00:02:17,179 Oh. 55 00:02:17,180 --> 00:02:18,528 - Go ahead. 56 00:02:18,529 --> 00:02:19,529 - It's fine. You can take it. 57 00:02:19,530 --> 00:02:20,748 - I don't care who picks up 58 00:02:20,749 --> 00:02:22,837 as long as it's not my voicemail. 59 00:02:22,838 --> 00:02:23,926 - Professor Mercer's phone. 60 00:02:25,884 --> 00:02:27,363 It's HDP. 61 00:02:27,364 --> 00:02:28,973 They say they can get you in with the company founders. 62 00:02:28,974 --> 00:02:30,192 - They can? When? 63 00:02:30,193 --> 00:02:31,411 - This morning? 64 00:02:31,412 --> 00:02:32,934 That might be a little-- 65 00:02:32,935 --> 00:02:33,978 actually, that's great. 66 00:02:33,979 --> 00:02:35,284 Yes, thank you. 67 00:02:35,285 --> 00:02:37,199 He'll be there in an hour. 68 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:38,287 - HDP? 69 00:02:38,288 --> 00:02:39,897 - Horizon Decision Partners. 70 00:02:39,898 --> 00:02:42,161 They're a consulting firm of forecasters. 71 00:02:42,162 --> 00:02:43,640 - Ultra-forecasters. 72 00:02:43,641 --> 00:02:45,381 It's what they call the really good ones. 73 00:02:45,382 --> 00:02:46,600 - Oh, are these the people who claim they can 74 00:02:46,601 --> 00:02:48,515 actually predict the future? 75 00:02:48,516 --> 00:02:49,907 Sounds a little sci-fi. 76 00:02:49,908 --> 00:02:50,995 - No, it's not. 77 00:02:50,996 --> 00:02:52,171 It's data modeling, you know? 78 00:02:52,172 --> 00:02:53,215 You love data. 79 00:02:53,216 --> 00:02:54,434 - Imagine a drug maker 80 00:02:54,435 --> 00:02:55,783 trying to predict the next pandemic 81 00:02:55,784 --> 00:02:58,089 or a politician looking to craft new policy 82 00:02:58,090 --> 00:02:59,613 ahead of Supreme Court decisions. 83 00:02:59,614 --> 00:03:01,528 You'd order a forecast from HDP. 84 00:03:01,529 --> 00:03:02,833 - It's pretty cutting edge. 85 00:03:02,834 --> 00:03:04,966 They can predict market moves, sports outcomes, 86 00:03:04,967 --> 00:03:06,228 elections, even wars. 87 00:03:06,229 --> 00:03:07,664 - Between their data and mine, 88 00:03:07,665 --> 00:03:09,275 I can see some real opportunities 89 00:03:09,276 --> 00:03:11,755 to help people make better decisions. 90 00:03:11,756 --> 00:03:13,801 - Of course, they're booked solid for months 91 00:03:13,802 --> 00:03:15,194 with fancier clients. 92 00:03:15,195 --> 00:03:16,760 So we figured out a workaround. 93 00:03:16,761 --> 00:03:19,154 - Rizwan and Simon already know this, 94 00:03:19,155 --> 00:03:23,506 but I'm debating a new laser surgery to reduce my scars. 95 00:03:23,507 --> 00:03:25,465 I requested a forecast of my outcomes 96 00:03:25,466 --> 00:03:27,336 so that I can weigh the risks. 97 00:03:27,337 --> 00:03:28,990 - Sounds like they bit. 98 00:03:28,991 --> 00:03:33,081 - So who can predict which of you three will drive me? 99 00:03:33,082 --> 00:03:34,865 ♪ 100 00:03:34,866 --> 00:03:35,866 - I'll be right back. 101 00:03:35,867 --> 00:03:37,694 - Thank you. 102 00:03:37,695 --> 00:03:40,088 - For a field I only learned about today, 103 00:03:40,089 --> 00:03:42,046 this office is impressive. 104 00:03:42,047 --> 00:03:43,526 Wow. 105 00:03:43,527 --> 00:03:47,008 - Speaking of offices, how's it being back? 106 00:03:47,009 --> 00:03:48,357 Fitting like an old shoe? 107 00:03:48,358 --> 00:03:50,272 - Kind of smelling like one. - [laughs] 108 00:03:50,273 --> 00:03:54,668 Yeah, the boys don't uphold the Phoebe tidiness standard, 109 00:03:54,669 --> 00:03:55,886 that's for sure. 110 00:03:55,887 --> 00:03:58,367 - The thing is, Rizwan's the head RA now. 111 00:03:58,368 --> 00:04:00,848 And even if I wanted to big-foot him, 112 00:04:00,849 --> 00:04:02,980 and I don't, I've caught up on his work, 113 00:04:02,981 --> 00:04:04,547 and it's fantastic. 114 00:04:04,548 --> 00:04:06,375 So my only question is-- 115 00:04:06,376 --> 00:04:08,986 - How to deal with the pecking order? 116 00:04:08,987 --> 00:04:12,033 What if I say I'll leave you guys to figure that out? 117 00:04:12,034 --> 00:04:13,904 - I would say, of everything I've missed, 118 00:04:13,905 --> 00:04:15,950 this is what I miss most. 119 00:04:15,951 --> 00:04:17,908 - I'm afraid there's been a mistake. 120 00:04:17,909 --> 00:04:20,563 There's nothing on the books this morning with Dr. Mercer. 121 00:04:20,564 --> 00:04:22,173 Our CEO, Willa, and our partner, Zed, 122 00:04:22,174 --> 00:04:23,479 are both at a breakfast. 123 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:24,915 [indistinct chatter] 124 00:04:24,916 --> 00:04:26,003 - That's odd. 125 00:04:26,004 --> 00:04:27,135 So who called us? 126 00:04:27,136 --> 00:04:29,442 - That'd be me. 127 00:04:29,443 --> 00:04:31,052 I'm sorry for the bait and switch, 128 00:04:31,053 --> 00:04:32,749 Dr. Mercer and-- 129 00:04:32,750 --> 00:04:34,273 - Phoebe Duncan. 130 00:04:34,274 --> 00:04:35,578 - I'm Laura Bennett. 131 00:04:35,579 --> 00:04:37,450 I've followed your career forever. 132 00:04:37,451 --> 00:04:38,581 I didn't think you'd take a meeting 133 00:04:38,582 --> 00:04:40,322 with an associate forecaster. 134 00:04:40,323 --> 00:04:41,541 But I know you're the person to call 135 00:04:41,542 --> 00:04:43,107 when there's a serious problem. 136 00:04:43,108 --> 00:04:45,327 - So what's the problem? 137 00:04:45,328 --> 00:04:48,330 I think a lot of people are about to die, 138 00:04:48,331 --> 00:04:50,985 and I need you to help save them. 139 00:04:50,986 --> 00:04:53,944 [suspenseful music] 140 00:04:53,945 --> 00:04:55,903 ♪ 141 00:04:55,904 --> 00:04:58,645 HDP hired me for my high-accuracy forecasting 142 00:04:58,646 --> 00:05:00,124 in the transpo sector-- 143 00:05:00,125 --> 00:05:02,301 you know, cars, planes, trains. 144 00:05:02,302 --> 00:05:04,172 For some reason, I really get trains. 145 00:05:04,173 --> 00:05:05,913 And much like this type A, they're subject to 146 00:05:05,914 --> 00:05:07,784 the always/never paradox. 147 00:05:07,785 --> 00:05:09,482 - Those are systems that are always in use 148 00:05:09,483 --> 00:05:10,526 but should never fail? 149 00:05:10,527 --> 00:05:11,962 - Though, with transportation, 150 00:05:11,963 --> 00:05:14,138 there's always a baseline accident risk. 151 00:05:14,139 --> 00:05:17,011 When we forecast, we start our models off that percentage. 152 00:05:17,012 --> 00:05:18,317 - Tell me if I follow. 153 00:05:18,318 --> 00:05:19,883 You look at what happened before, 154 00:05:19,884 --> 00:05:21,929 and you adjust the risk based on current conditions. 155 00:05:21,930 --> 00:05:23,626 - Exactly. 156 00:05:23,627 --> 00:05:25,889 And currently, the mid-Atlantic corridor of the railway system 157 00:05:25,890 --> 00:05:27,978 is looking at a perfect storm of risk, 158 00:05:27,979 --> 00:05:29,763 predicting a mass casualty event 159 00:05:29,764 --> 00:05:31,634 sometime in the next 24 hours. 160 00:05:31,635 --> 00:05:32,983 - That's a pretty precise window. 161 00:05:32,984 --> 00:05:35,812 - For the next 24 hours, Line 1 is shut down 162 00:05:35,813 --> 00:05:38,075 due to a bridge repair, diverting all traffic 163 00:05:38,076 --> 00:05:41,035 to Line 2, which is about 100 years old 164 00:05:41,036 --> 00:05:42,863 and in desperate need of servicing. 165 00:05:42,864 --> 00:05:45,126 - Which ups the chance of derailment or collision. 166 00:05:45,127 --> 00:05:46,562 - By 20%. 167 00:05:46,563 --> 00:05:48,782 Plus, with a spike in flu cases, 168 00:05:48,783 --> 00:05:50,392 the railway is understaffed. 169 00:05:50,393 --> 00:05:52,655 - It's a holiday weekend, which must mean more travelers. 170 00:05:52,656 --> 00:05:54,048 - And bad weather to boot. 171 00:05:54,049 --> 00:05:56,224 Any one factor, the system survives. 172 00:05:56,225 --> 00:05:58,053 But this many? 173 00:05:59,141 --> 00:06:00,359 - This says two days ago, 174 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,405 someone hacked into Line 2's PTC. 175 00:06:03,406 --> 00:06:04,406 What's that? 176 00:06:04,407 --> 00:06:05,668 - Positive Train Control. 177 00:06:05,669 --> 00:06:07,888 It's an automated safeguard against crashes, 178 00:06:07,889 --> 00:06:09,368 which is now down. 179 00:06:09,369 --> 00:06:11,239 - So we're suddenly looking at a looming catastrophe. 180 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,850 - I don't know what'll go wrong or exactly where, 181 00:06:13,851 --> 00:06:16,418 but the numbers suggest it will happen. 182 00:06:16,419 --> 00:06:18,464 And it's not just passengers at risk. 183 00:06:18,465 --> 00:06:20,161 It's rail employees, all the people living 184 00:06:20,162 --> 00:06:21,380 and working along the route. 185 00:06:21,381 --> 00:06:23,033 - This can't be the first time 186 00:06:23,034 --> 00:06:25,601 that your company's spotted disaster. 187 00:06:25,602 --> 00:06:28,865 What's HDP's protocol for intervention? 188 00:06:28,866 --> 00:06:31,520 - That's why I called you, Dr. Mercer. 189 00:06:31,521 --> 00:06:35,176 We have a policy of non-intervention. 190 00:06:35,177 --> 00:06:37,221 - So you don't do anything? 191 00:06:37,222 --> 00:06:38,440 - It's Willa's policy. 192 00:06:38,441 --> 00:06:40,181 She feels very strongly about it. 193 00:06:40,182 --> 00:06:42,879 - Do you have any concrete evidence you can show her, 194 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:44,446 a specific event? 195 00:06:44,447 --> 00:06:45,839 - I'm eyeing four passenger trains 196 00:06:45,840 --> 00:06:47,231 out of New England this morning. 197 00:06:47,232 --> 00:06:49,016 If any of them leaves more than 30 minutes late, 198 00:06:49,017 --> 00:06:51,105 they will speed to make up time, 199 00:06:51,106 --> 00:06:54,456 bringing their odds of a mass casualty event 200 00:06:54,457 --> 00:06:57,241 up to 87%. 201 00:06:57,242 --> 00:06:58,634 [tense music] 202 00:06:58,635 --> 00:07:00,375 - So are they late? 203 00:07:00,376 --> 00:07:03,378 ♪ 204 00:07:03,379 --> 00:07:04,988 - The first two left on time. 205 00:07:04,989 --> 00:07:07,904 The third one, only 10 minutes late. 206 00:07:07,905 --> 00:07:10,733 But the Orlando Express is projected 207 00:07:10,734 --> 00:07:13,780 to leave 20 minutes late. 208 00:07:13,781 --> 00:07:15,912 - So far. 209 00:07:15,913 --> 00:07:16,783 - Come on, kids. 210 00:07:16,784 --> 00:07:18,219 We're gonna miss the train. 211 00:07:18,220 --> 00:07:20,221 Put on your fast legs. 212 00:07:20,222 --> 00:07:21,918 - Dad, I looked at the maps. 213 00:07:21,919 --> 00:07:24,181 We can hit every attraction at the park, 214 00:07:24,182 --> 00:07:25,705 but we'll need to move fast. 215 00:07:25,706 --> 00:07:27,097 - Final boarding call for the Orlando Express. 216 00:07:27,098 --> 00:07:28,577 - I am all in, bud. 217 00:07:28,578 --> 00:07:30,623 But first, we gotta get on this attraction. 218 00:07:30,624 --> 00:07:32,320 All right. All right, are you ready? 219 00:07:32,321 --> 00:07:34,757 1, 2, 3. - My purse! 220 00:07:34,758 --> 00:07:35,758 [bell ringing] Mitch! 221 00:07:35,759 --> 00:07:37,107 - Oh, no, no, no. - Oh, oh. 222 00:07:37,108 --> 00:07:39,283 - Oh, uh, Conductor! 223 00:07:39,284 --> 00:07:42,112 - Please, can you help us? 224 00:07:42,113 --> 00:07:45,768 Nothing like a scare to start a vacation. 225 00:07:45,769 --> 00:07:47,683 - Well, lucky for us, we have 22 hours 226 00:07:47,684 --> 00:07:49,380 of gorgeous scenery to get over it. 227 00:07:49,381 --> 00:07:52,775 - The Orlando Express just left 32 minutes late. 228 00:07:52,776 --> 00:07:54,690 There's an almost 90% chance 229 00:07:54,691 --> 00:07:57,476 that the system fails catastrophically. 230 00:07:57,477 --> 00:07:59,521 - Which means any of these trains 231 00:07:59,522 --> 00:08:01,611 could be headed for disaster. 232 00:08:05,528 --> 00:08:08,530 [tense music] 233 00:08:08,531 --> 00:08:15,495 ♪ 234 00:08:16,626 --> 00:08:18,671 - Dr. Mercer, this is our CEO, Willa, 235 00:08:18,672 --> 00:08:20,324 and Zed, our head of data. 236 00:08:20,325 --> 00:08:21,978 - I'm sorry, Dr. Mercer. 237 00:08:21,979 --> 00:08:24,546 But our policy, it's ironclad. 238 00:08:24,547 --> 00:08:26,113 - Help me. 239 00:08:26,114 --> 00:08:28,811 If you forecast something terrible is gonna happen, 240 00:08:28,812 --> 00:08:30,509 why wouldn't you intervene? 241 00:08:30,510 --> 00:08:32,641 - Because that's just not what we do here. 242 00:08:32,642 --> 00:08:35,775 - We work for our clients, which, in this case, is-- 243 00:08:35,776 --> 00:08:38,995 - A lumber company looking to reduce shipping costs. 244 00:08:38,996 --> 00:08:40,823 - We're data scientists, nothing more. 245 00:08:40,824 --> 00:08:41,868 - So are we. 246 00:08:41,869 --> 00:08:43,086 But our jobs can't just 247 00:08:43,087 --> 00:08:44,610 start and end with data. 248 00:08:44,611 --> 00:08:48,265 We go to amazing lengths to respond to a disaster. 249 00:08:48,266 --> 00:08:50,920 How could we not do the same thing to prevent one? 250 00:08:50,921 --> 00:08:52,226 - If we cry the sky is falling, 251 00:08:52,227 --> 00:08:53,706 there are two possible outcomes. 252 00:08:53,707 --> 00:08:55,708 One, nothing bad happens and we get sued 253 00:08:55,709 --> 00:08:57,492 for wasting people's time and money. 254 00:08:57,493 --> 00:08:59,929 Two, disaster still hits and we get sued 255 00:08:59,930 --> 00:09:01,540 for not warning them sooner. 256 00:09:01,541 --> 00:09:03,498 - But surely, the bigger risk is loss of life. 257 00:09:03,499 --> 00:09:05,369 - Maybe, or maybe in trying 258 00:09:05,370 --> 00:09:07,633 to stop something from going wrong, 259 00:09:07,634 --> 00:09:11,550 we inadvertently cause something else to go wrong. 260 00:09:11,551 --> 00:09:14,378 - You mean the law of unintended consequences. 261 00:09:14,379 --> 00:09:17,033 - And as Laura well knows, we like to think of ourselves 262 00:09:17,034 --> 00:09:18,165 as time travelers. 263 00:09:18,166 --> 00:09:19,819 I mean, any interference, 264 00:09:19,820 --> 00:09:21,211 it can disrupt the timeline. 265 00:09:21,212 --> 00:09:23,213 And we can't take that risk. 266 00:09:23,214 --> 00:09:26,129 I'm sorry for wasting your time, Dr. Mercer. 267 00:09:26,130 --> 00:09:29,045 [tense music] 268 00:09:29,046 --> 00:09:32,222 - Whoa, we're speeding up. 269 00:09:32,223 --> 00:09:34,224 - Think the engineer is trying to make up time? 270 00:09:34,225 --> 00:09:35,225 - I hope so. 271 00:09:35,226 --> 00:09:37,053 Check-in's at 4:00 tomorrow. 272 00:09:37,054 --> 00:09:38,533 - Just so I have this straight, 273 00:09:38,534 --> 00:09:42,145 the American Railroad Organization, the ARO, 274 00:09:42,146 --> 00:09:44,365 has a safety system called PTC? 275 00:09:44,366 --> 00:09:46,367 - Yes, Positive Train Control. 276 00:09:46,368 --> 00:09:48,412 - And you want me to look into a hack 277 00:09:48,413 --> 00:09:50,327 that took down Line 2's PTC, 278 00:09:50,328 --> 00:09:53,156 according to someone at HDP, ASAP? 279 00:09:53,157 --> 00:09:54,897 - [laughs] You having fun? 280 00:09:54,898 --> 00:09:57,813 - Just flashing back to all those acronyms 281 00:09:57,814 --> 00:09:59,728 in the FBI handbook. 282 00:09:59,729 --> 00:10:00,990 I'm on it, Alec. 283 00:10:00,991 --> 00:10:02,252 I'll call you back. 284 00:10:02,253 --> 00:10:05,516 - Uh, I almost didn't recognize the place. 285 00:10:05,517 --> 00:10:08,563 - [laughs] Yeah, it needed a little personality. 286 00:10:08,564 --> 00:10:10,739 - Alec told me that he was gonna ask you 287 00:10:10,740 --> 00:10:12,219 to look into the hack. 288 00:10:12,220 --> 00:10:14,351 He wants me to try to get the American Railroad 289 00:10:14,352 --> 00:10:16,919 Organization to issue an emergency stop order, 290 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:18,660 but no luck so far. 291 00:10:18,661 --> 00:10:21,315 - I can't imagine big three-letter agencies 292 00:10:21,316 --> 00:10:23,186 like to be bossed around by other ones. 293 00:10:23,187 --> 00:10:24,927 - Well, that's not really the FBI's purpose. 294 00:10:24,928 --> 00:10:27,364 If we had more than Laura's forecast in hand, 295 00:10:27,365 --> 00:10:28,801 we could do better. 296 00:10:28,802 --> 00:10:30,063 - Well, I'll tell you this. 297 00:10:30,064 --> 00:10:33,109 Whoever took down PTC was hardcore. 298 00:10:33,110 --> 00:10:34,458 - Oh? - Yeah. 299 00:10:34,459 --> 00:10:37,505 FBI Cyber's already poked into the hack. 300 00:10:37,506 --> 00:10:38,898 No idea. 301 00:10:38,899 --> 00:10:41,814 But whoever did this used a military-grade virus. 302 00:10:41,815 --> 00:10:43,946 This baby doesn't just corrupt software. 303 00:10:43,947 --> 00:10:45,774 It ebolas hardware. 304 00:10:45,775 --> 00:10:49,648 The initial strike took down all the PTC control boxes 305 00:10:49,649 --> 00:10:51,780 on Line 2, and since then, our hacker has been 306 00:10:51,781 --> 00:10:54,087 destroying new ones as fast as they're replaced. 307 00:10:54,088 --> 00:10:56,132 - It sounds like one of those ransomware attacks. 308 00:10:56,133 --> 00:10:57,568 But there's no ransom demand? 309 00:10:57,569 --> 00:10:58,657 - Nada. 310 00:10:58,658 --> 00:11:00,267 And no terrorist organization has 311 00:11:00,268 --> 00:11:01,790 claimed responsibility either. 312 00:11:01,791 --> 00:11:03,923 - So someone just wants to make trains 313 00:11:03,924 --> 00:11:05,664 less safe for some reason? 314 00:11:05,665 --> 00:11:06,839 - Mm. 315 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:08,536 Well, too bad for them, Kylie's on it. 316 00:11:08,537 --> 00:11:11,844 Once I find them, the only acronym they'll be saying 317 00:11:11,845 --> 00:11:14,238 is FML. 318 00:11:17,111 --> 00:11:18,502 - Simon, Rizwan, 319 00:11:18,503 --> 00:11:19,721 I'm gonna throw this ball at your head. 320 00:11:19,722 --> 00:11:21,245 Duck. 321 00:11:22,899 --> 00:11:26,554 I submit to the court that warnings work, 322 00:11:26,555 --> 00:11:29,557 HDP's justifications be damned. 323 00:11:29,558 --> 00:11:32,081 But Laura believes the only way to lower the risk 324 00:11:32,082 --> 00:11:35,128 is to shut down the entire Mid-Atlantic Corridor 325 00:11:35,129 --> 00:11:37,652 until the window of danger passes. 326 00:11:37,653 --> 00:11:39,828 - Shut down the entire corridor? 327 00:11:39,829 --> 00:11:41,525 An always/never system like railways 328 00:11:41,526 --> 00:11:43,397 won't just have an off button. 329 00:11:43,398 --> 00:11:44,703 - It's largely by design, 330 00:11:44,704 --> 00:11:46,705 and I fear that may work against us. 331 00:11:46,706 --> 00:11:48,663 ARO could issue an emergency order. 332 00:11:48,664 --> 00:11:50,230 I've asked Marisa to look into it. 333 00:11:50,231 --> 00:11:51,710 - Yeah, but it'd be an outside shot 334 00:11:51,711 --> 00:11:53,407 even if Laura's forecast had Willa and Zed's blessing, 335 00:11:53,408 --> 00:11:54,538 which it doesn't. 336 00:11:54,539 --> 00:11:57,324 - So a different target. 337 00:11:57,325 --> 00:11:59,718 Founders Freight is the only company 338 00:11:59,719 --> 00:12:02,851 that Laura says can effectively shut down the corridor. 339 00:12:02,852 --> 00:12:05,462 Getting them to do it will be a hard sell. 340 00:12:05,463 --> 00:12:06,855 They'll lose money. 341 00:12:06,856 --> 00:12:08,074 So what's the best way 342 00:12:08,075 --> 00:12:10,250 to get them to act on our warnings? 343 00:12:10,251 --> 00:12:12,078 - Well, I mean, it might take a minute, but I think we-- 344 00:12:12,079 --> 00:12:13,688 - Top of my head, remember the riff 345 00:12:13,689 --> 00:12:16,125 on Ernst Fehr's costly altruism paradigm we ran last year? 346 00:12:16,126 --> 00:12:17,213 [light percussive music] 347 00:12:17,214 --> 00:12:18,258 - Totally. 348 00:12:18,259 --> 00:12:19,389 That's a great idea. 349 00:12:19,390 --> 00:12:20,869 - Ernst Fehr? 350 00:12:20,870 --> 00:12:21,827 I'm not familiar. 351 00:12:21,828 --> 00:12:23,654 - Phoebe, can you catch him up? 352 00:12:23,655 --> 00:12:25,613 - In effect, we'll be asking a company 353 00:12:25,614 --> 00:12:28,311 to forfeit a day's earnings to avoid something bad. 354 00:12:28,312 --> 00:12:29,791 - Right. 355 00:12:29,792 --> 00:12:31,750 Our costly altruism experiment helped figure out 356 00:12:31,751 --> 00:12:33,490 who people were more likely to do that for, 357 00:12:33,491 --> 00:12:35,057 themselves or others. 358 00:12:35,058 --> 00:12:36,711 - We ran two variations. 359 00:12:36,712 --> 00:12:38,452 And Rizwan thought the risk factor had to be 360 00:12:38,453 --> 00:12:40,715 truly awful, so we decided on... 361 00:12:40,716 --> 00:12:42,151 - Chum. 362 00:12:42,152 --> 00:12:43,370 [sighs] Have you seen "Jaws"? 363 00:12:43,371 --> 00:12:44,414 Sharks love it. 364 00:12:44,415 --> 00:12:45,764 Humans, not so much. 365 00:12:45,765 --> 00:12:46,939 - We told our participants 366 00:12:46,940 --> 00:12:48,636 they had a chance to spin a wheel. 367 00:12:48,637 --> 00:12:50,420 If they played, they'd get $50. 368 00:12:50,421 --> 00:12:52,422 But if the wheel landed on red, 369 00:12:52,423 --> 00:12:53,902 I'd dump a bucket of chum on their heads. 370 00:12:53,903 --> 00:12:55,774 - Anything to help with chapter dues. 371 00:12:55,775 --> 00:12:59,516 - Variation 1, 81% of them were willing to play. 372 00:12:59,517 --> 00:13:01,823 ♪ 373 00:13:01,824 --> 00:13:04,435 [wheel ticking] 374 00:13:05,828 --> 00:13:07,220 - [sighs] 375 00:13:07,221 --> 00:13:09,788 [wheel ticking] 376 00:13:09,789 --> 00:13:10,964 - Worth it! 377 00:13:11,965 --> 00:13:13,008 - Oh! 378 00:13:13,009 --> 00:13:14,531 [laughter, groans] 379 00:13:14,532 --> 00:13:15,794 - Not worth it. 380 00:13:15,795 --> 00:13:17,099 - Next, we told the second group there'd be 381 00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:19,014 a different consequence for a red zone spin. 382 00:13:19,015 --> 00:13:21,277 Rather than dump the chum on them, we'd dump it on... 383 00:13:21,278 --> 00:13:23,976 Who wants to risk sweet Mrs. Oris? 384 00:13:23,977 --> 00:13:24,977 - Chum Grandma? 385 00:13:24,978 --> 00:13:26,195 No way. 386 00:13:26,196 --> 00:13:27,370 - In our second variation, 387 00:13:27,371 --> 00:13:30,417 only 53% wanted to risk Mrs. Oris. 388 00:13:30,418 --> 00:13:33,420 [wheel ticking] 389 00:13:33,421 --> 00:13:37,119 ♪ 390 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:38,164 - Oh! 391 00:13:38,165 --> 00:13:40,514 [laughter] 392 00:13:40,515 --> 00:13:41,863 - It's the concept of social utility. 393 00:13:41,864 --> 00:13:43,734 People are sometimes more motivated to protect 394 00:13:43,735 --> 00:13:45,388 others than themselves. 395 00:13:45,389 --> 00:13:47,303 - It seems like that's how we should warn Founders Freight-- 396 00:13:47,304 --> 00:13:49,131 frame it that the real damage is to others, not them. 397 00:13:49,132 --> 00:13:51,699 They could save hundreds, maybe thousands of lives. 398 00:13:51,700 --> 00:13:53,657 - Talking about so many lives 399 00:13:53,658 --> 00:13:55,746 makes people think in numbers, 400 00:13:55,747 --> 00:13:57,923 which might actually dull our impact. 401 00:13:57,924 --> 00:14:01,013 - But if we get specific with social utility 402 00:14:01,014 --> 00:14:06,061 about who could get killed, like Mrs. Oris, 403 00:14:06,062 --> 00:14:07,671 that could do the job. 404 00:14:07,672 --> 00:14:11,676 Phoebe, can you help me find an identifiable victim? 405 00:14:13,504 --> 00:14:15,505 - [sighs] 406 00:14:15,506 --> 00:14:17,116 So that's Phoebe. 407 00:14:17,117 --> 00:14:18,987 Back 5 minutes and-- 408 00:14:18,988 --> 00:14:20,641 - Casually pantsing the both of us. 409 00:14:20,642 --> 00:14:22,034 You'll get used to it. 410 00:14:22,035 --> 00:14:23,905 - Just a couple of Kens getting Barbied. 411 00:14:23,906 --> 00:14:25,211 - It may stop a disaster, though. 412 00:14:25,212 --> 00:14:26,516 We should help. 413 00:14:26,517 --> 00:14:27,867 Mercer-naries fan out. 414 00:14:30,782 --> 00:14:32,696 - Founders Freight CEO, Denise Franks, 415 00:14:32,697 --> 00:14:34,002 this is Laura Bennett. 416 00:14:34,003 --> 00:14:38,006 And this is Private First Class Zach Kowalski. 417 00:14:38,007 --> 00:14:41,531 Zach is on a train home to Dover right now 418 00:14:41,532 --> 00:14:43,142 on special leave from Fort Sill. 419 00:14:43,143 --> 00:14:45,492 His wife just gave birth to their first son. 420 00:14:45,493 --> 00:14:48,843 From what he's posting, Zach is elated. 421 00:14:48,844 --> 00:14:51,193 He has no idea the danger he's in. 422 00:14:51,194 --> 00:14:52,412 - And you can keep it that way. 423 00:14:52,413 --> 00:14:53,674 Founders Freight owns 424 00:14:53,675 --> 00:14:56,285 70% of Line 2's physical tracks. 425 00:14:56,286 --> 00:14:57,504 - Help us, Ms. Franks. 426 00:14:57,505 --> 00:14:59,288 Shut down Line 2. 427 00:14:59,289 --> 00:15:00,594 - All we need is 18 hours 428 00:15:00,595 --> 00:15:02,204 to finish the repairs on Line 1. 429 00:15:02,205 --> 00:15:05,033 - Look, even if I believed in this forecasting-- 430 00:15:05,034 --> 00:15:08,384 - Uh, respectfully, it's not a matter of belief. 431 00:15:08,385 --> 00:15:10,560 It's not crystals and tea leaves. 432 00:15:10,561 --> 00:15:12,562 Laura is a data scientist. 433 00:15:12,563 --> 00:15:14,390 It's probability. 434 00:15:14,391 --> 00:15:18,177 - I was with the FAA post 9/11. 435 00:15:18,178 --> 00:15:21,484 Everyone knew another attack was coming, 436 00:15:21,485 --> 00:15:23,878 so we shut down air traffic for three days 437 00:15:23,879 --> 00:15:25,924 and nearly bankrupted the industry. 438 00:15:25,925 --> 00:15:28,927 - You're worried about unintended consequences. 439 00:15:28,928 --> 00:15:32,104 - We grounded planes because something might happen. 440 00:15:32,105 --> 00:15:33,714 And that harmed people too. 441 00:15:33,715 --> 00:15:35,585 Sick people got stuck without their meds. 442 00:15:35,586 --> 00:15:37,413 Auto fatalities went up with the forced increase 443 00:15:37,414 --> 00:15:39,067 in road traffic. 444 00:15:39,068 --> 00:15:41,287 I'm not making the same mistake again, Dr. Mercer. 445 00:15:41,288 --> 00:15:44,944 ♪ 446 00:15:49,035 --> 00:15:51,775 [dramatic music] 447 00:15:51,776 --> 00:15:54,213 ♪ 448 00:15:54,214 --> 00:15:56,041 - So much for social utility. 449 00:15:56,042 --> 00:15:57,694 The odds couldn't be clearer. 450 00:15:57,695 --> 00:15:59,218 They say, "Stop the trains." 451 00:15:59,219 --> 00:16:01,350 But Ms. Franks is afraid of landing 452 00:16:01,351 --> 00:16:03,004 on the lower percentage side of things. 453 00:16:03,005 --> 00:16:04,310 - In my field, we call that 454 00:16:04,311 --> 00:16:06,051 getting caught on the wrong side of maybe. 455 00:16:06,052 --> 00:16:08,270 - Which means we have to find another solution. 456 00:16:08,271 --> 00:16:10,620 If we don't, people like Private Kowalski 457 00:16:10,621 --> 00:16:12,883 may never get back to their families again. 458 00:16:12,884 --> 00:16:14,233 - OK, OK. 459 00:16:14,234 --> 00:16:17,018 What if we trigger a multi-state blackout? 460 00:16:17,019 --> 00:16:18,193 What? 461 00:16:18,194 --> 00:16:19,934 - I mean, I'll write it down. 462 00:16:19,935 --> 00:16:21,196 - It's all right, man. 463 00:16:21,197 --> 00:16:22,415 None of us are hitting home runs. 464 00:16:22,416 --> 00:16:23,807 - True. 465 00:16:23,808 --> 00:16:26,419 You did suggest that my family buy the railroad. 466 00:16:26,420 --> 00:16:27,942 - Yeah, that was a joke. - It sure was. 467 00:16:27,943 --> 00:16:30,466 - Levity lightens stress, which can promote creativity. 468 00:16:30,467 --> 00:16:31,772 - Uh-huh. 469 00:16:31,773 --> 00:16:32,773 - How goes it? 470 00:16:32,774 --> 00:16:33,861 Any progress? 471 00:16:33,862 --> 00:16:35,428 - Does negative progress count? 472 00:16:35,429 --> 00:16:38,953 - The problem is, our best ideas are also highly illegal. 473 00:16:38,954 --> 00:16:40,085 - I just talked to Marisa. 474 00:16:40,086 --> 00:16:42,783 ARO won't shut down Line 2. 475 00:16:42,784 --> 00:16:45,568 They say that everything is technically within regulation-- 476 00:16:45,569 --> 00:16:48,354 the tracks, the personnel, signals. 477 00:16:48,355 --> 00:16:50,312 - Does that Include their busted PTC? 478 00:16:50,313 --> 00:16:52,097 - After the hack, they issued a waiver 479 00:16:52,098 --> 00:16:55,361 to keep the traffic flowing on the line, claiming it was safe. 480 00:16:55,362 --> 00:16:56,710 - So a shutdown order would be an admission 481 00:16:56,711 --> 00:16:58,146 they'd made a mistake. 482 00:16:58,147 --> 00:16:59,800 - We have to find a new play. 483 00:16:59,801 --> 00:17:02,846 Kylie said that whoever hacked the control boxes 484 00:17:02,847 --> 00:17:04,196 is still taking them down. 485 00:17:04,197 --> 00:17:05,240 She thinks she's close to tracing 486 00:17:05,241 --> 00:17:07,112 the virus back to its source. 487 00:17:07,113 --> 00:17:08,374 But even if that works, 488 00:17:08,375 --> 00:17:11,855 the system is still on the brink. 489 00:17:11,856 --> 00:17:15,468 Laura, Zed, was there a crash? 490 00:17:15,469 --> 00:17:18,993 - Not yet that we know of, though Laura had a near-miss. 491 00:17:18,994 --> 00:17:20,255 - Word got back to Willa that 492 00:17:20,256 --> 00:17:21,648 I went around the firm's policy. 493 00:17:21,649 --> 00:17:24,477 - And she threatened to fire Laura. 494 00:17:24,478 --> 00:17:27,523 But as we argued, I had a sense of clarity. 495 00:17:27,524 --> 00:17:29,525 Now, before we opened Horizon Decision Partners, 496 00:17:29,526 --> 00:17:32,311 I used to publish forecasts directly on online forums 497 00:17:32,312 --> 00:17:35,009 so that the public could act and change things. 498 00:17:35,010 --> 00:17:36,228 I really miss that now. 499 00:17:36,229 --> 00:17:37,316 - I want to help. 500 00:17:37,317 --> 00:17:38,665 What are you thinking? 501 00:17:38,666 --> 00:17:40,101 - How soon can you get on the news? 502 00:17:40,102 --> 00:17:41,668 - Depends. 503 00:17:41,669 --> 00:17:43,104 - Now, I watched your clips from the past year-- 504 00:17:43,105 --> 00:17:45,193 NBC, PBS. 505 00:17:45,194 --> 00:17:47,239 You're convincing. 506 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,154 I say you go directly to the public. 507 00:17:49,155 --> 00:17:50,938 - You want me to tell the public 508 00:17:50,939 --> 00:17:52,940 about a train crash coming? 509 00:17:52,941 --> 00:17:54,072 - We're eight hours into this thing, 510 00:17:54,073 --> 00:17:55,769 and we've been lucky so far. 511 00:17:55,770 --> 00:17:57,379 But I just ran a forecast. 512 00:17:57,380 --> 00:17:59,642 If we can disrupt enough passenger trains, 513 00:17:59,643 --> 00:18:01,818 the system will cool to a safe level. 514 00:18:01,819 --> 00:18:03,211 - Maybe. 515 00:18:03,212 --> 00:18:04,778 But we're not taking irrationality into account. 516 00:18:04,779 --> 00:18:06,127 I mean, wouldn't that cause a panic? 517 00:18:06,128 --> 00:18:07,520 - Rizwan's right. 518 00:18:07,521 --> 00:18:09,348 When brains think they're headed for disaster, 519 00:18:09,349 --> 00:18:11,698 people may freeze, try to flee, or fight. 520 00:18:11,699 --> 00:18:14,004 - What if the riders revolt to stop or get off a train 521 00:18:14,005 --> 00:18:17,921 and we actually make a disaster happen that way? 522 00:18:17,922 --> 00:18:18,922 - We didn't calculate for that. 523 00:18:18,923 --> 00:18:20,098 - They're right. 524 00:18:20,099 --> 00:18:21,795 We don't want to risk mass panic. 525 00:18:21,796 --> 00:18:25,886 But I might have a way to get travelers to cancel their trips 526 00:18:25,887 --> 00:18:27,670 before they make them. 527 00:18:27,671 --> 00:18:29,019 - Welcome back. 528 00:18:29,020 --> 00:18:30,934 We are talking about the cutting-edge science 529 00:18:30,935 --> 00:18:32,414 of ultra forecasting 530 00:18:32,415 --> 00:18:35,243 with the irrational Dr. Alec Mercer. 531 00:18:35,244 --> 00:18:37,158 - Joy, we're all irrational. 532 00:18:37,159 --> 00:18:38,159 - I know. 533 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,726 I just love saying that. 534 00:18:39,727 --> 00:18:41,989 - So this forecasting stuff is making me feel 535 00:18:41,990 --> 00:18:43,686 like I'm in "Minority Report." 536 00:18:43,687 --> 00:18:46,298 Can you give us an example of how it might be used? 537 00:18:46,299 --> 00:18:48,691 - Well, I just had an interesting chat 538 00:18:48,692 --> 00:18:51,390 with an ultra forecaster who predicts that 539 00:18:51,391 --> 00:18:53,174 train travel will be a nightmare 540 00:18:53,175 --> 00:18:54,828 from now until tomorrow. 541 00:18:54,829 --> 00:18:57,961 They landed near 85% that there will be 542 00:18:57,962 --> 00:19:00,921 nothing but delays and cancellations 543 00:19:00,922 --> 00:19:03,576 up the whole Mid-Atlantic Corridor. 544 00:19:03,577 --> 00:19:05,839 - He's forecasting delays instead of catastrophes 545 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,102 to reduce train travel without causing panic. 546 00:19:08,103 --> 00:19:09,190 - Big area. 547 00:19:09,191 --> 00:19:10,974 - If it were me, 548 00:19:10,975 --> 00:19:15,283 I'd be looking for any other way to travel. 549 00:19:15,284 --> 00:19:17,198 - Well, folks, you heard it here. 550 00:19:17,199 --> 00:19:19,418 We've seen the future, and it's you 551 00:19:19,419 --> 00:19:22,551 rethinking those train plans. 552 00:19:22,552 --> 00:19:25,206 - Any pointers before we go in there? 553 00:19:25,207 --> 00:19:26,773 - Just follow my lead. 554 00:19:26,774 --> 00:19:29,384 You're a wizard for tracking the virus back to this base. 555 00:19:29,385 --> 00:19:30,429 You'll know when to jump in. 556 00:19:30,430 --> 00:19:32,431 - What if they won't talk? 557 00:19:32,432 --> 00:19:34,128 - Marisa put us on this because she trusts us 558 00:19:34,129 --> 00:19:35,521 to handle it while she focuses on 559 00:19:35,522 --> 00:19:37,044 preventing a train disaster. 560 00:19:37,045 --> 00:19:38,306 - But I don't know. 561 00:19:38,307 --> 00:19:39,829 - They'll talk. 562 00:19:39,830 --> 00:19:45,487 In fact, as far as they know, each of them already has. 563 00:19:45,488 --> 00:19:46,793 Captain Francine Sharp. 564 00:19:46,794 --> 00:19:48,098 - Yes. 565 00:19:48,099 --> 00:19:50,840 - Marine Major Jeremy Andre. - Yes. 566 00:19:50,841 --> 00:19:52,929 - You're aware of the charges that you abused your access 567 00:19:52,930 --> 00:19:54,714 to steal a viral weapon from this base, 568 00:19:54,715 --> 00:19:56,368 which was used to hack the train system? 569 00:19:56,369 --> 00:19:58,413 - That's a lie. 570 00:19:58,414 --> 00:19:59,588 - Try proving that. 571 00:19:59,589 --> 00:20:01,416 - Here's the thing. I don't need to. 572 00:20:01,417 --> 00:20:03,766 Your partner already confessed. 573 00:20:03,767 --> 00:20:06,247 I guess he didn't see another option once he saw what we had. 574 00:20:06,248 --> 00:20:08,684 Miss Mercer? 575 00:20:08,685 --> 00:20:11,121 - [clears throat] 576 00:20:11,122 --> 00:20:13,428 So here's the deal. 577 00:20:13,429 --> 00:20:15,474 When you stole the virus, you scrubbed the code 578 00:20:15,475 --> 00:20:17,606 of anything that could trace it back to this base. 579 00:20:17,607 --> 00:20:21,393 But what you didn't know is that the servers here 580 00:20:21,394 --> 00:20:23,699 leave a hidden data stamp on every file they touch. 581 00:20:23,700 --> 00:20:25,832 And if you know to look for that, 582 00:20:25,833 --> 00:20:28,269 you can pinpoint that download to this base 583 00:20:28,270 --> 00:20:29,923 during your joint shift. 584 00:20:29,924 --> 00:20:31,011 - If you know so much-- 585 00:20:31,012 --> 00:20:32,491 - Why am I even sitting here? 586 00:20:32,492 --> 00:20:34,493 - Because your partner only confessed 587 00:20:34,494 --> 00:20:37,191 to helping steal the virus. 588 00:20:37,192 --> 00:20:39,759 - They say you're the only one that knows what happened next, 589 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,283 that you hacked the PTC or sold it to someone who did, 590 00:20:42,284 --> 00:20:46,026 which means if you don't talk, the bulk of this lands on you. 591 00:20:46,027 --> 00:20:51,031 - So what will it be, truth or consequences? 592 00:20:51,032 --> 00:20:52,337 - [scoffs] 593 00:20:52,338 --> 00:20:53,860 [tense music] 594 00:20:53,861 --> 00:20:55,035 We sold it. 595 00:20:55,036 --> 00:20:57,080 - We sold it. 596 00:20:57,081 --> 00:20:58,691 - It's working. 597 00:20:58,692 --> 00:21:00,475 People are so bailing on their train trips, 598 00:21:00,476 --> 00:21:01,781 thanks to the professor's interview. 599 00:21:01,782 --> 00:21:04,087 - And to Kylie for making the clip go viral, 600 00:21:04,088 --> 00:21:05,263 however she does that. 601 00:21:05,264 --> 00:21:07,309 - Oh, Laura's calling. 602 00:21:08,092 --> 00:21:09,310 - Laura. 603 00:21:09,311 --> 00:21:10,920 - You guys, so many people canceled 604 00:21:10,921 --> 00:21:12,531 in the last 90 minutes. 605 00:21:12,532 --> 00:21:14,924 The train lines pulled 17% of passenger trains 606 00:21:14,925 --> 00:21:16,099 out of service. 607 00:21:16,100 --> 00:21:17,710 My forecast is changing as we speak. 608 00:21:17,711 --> 00:21:19,277 - Oh, it is changing, all right. 609 00:21:19,278 --> 00:21:21,931 With passenger traffic cut, freighter traffic's up. 610 00:21:21,932 --> 00:21:23,542 - That's fine. Didn't we expect that? 611 00:21:23,543 --> 00:21:25,370 - Did you also expect that most of those freighters 612 00:21:25,371 --> 00:21:26,893 are hauling crude oil? 613 00:21:26,894 --> 00:21:28,634 You know what we call those? Bomb trains. 614 00:21:28,635 --> 00:21:31,854 Because if one explodes, it'll kill thousands. 615 00:21:31,855 --> 00:21:34,857 - This--no, this wasn't in my forecast. 616 00:21:34,858 --> 00:21:37,033 There has been no increase in oil prices. 617 00:21:37,034 --> 00:21:38,339 - Look, watch what happens 618 00:21:38,340 --> 00:21:39,819 when we add those into the mix. 619 00:21:39,820 --> 00:21:41,777 [beeping] 620 00:21:41,778 --> 00:21:44,345 This is exactly why I didn't want you to intervene. 621 00:21:44,346 --> 00:21:46,434 - 91%. 622 00:21:46,435 --> 00:21:48,698 - And it's why you're fired. 623 00:21:49,873 --> 00:21:52,266 - Whoa, wait. What's going on? 624 00:21:52,267 --> 00:21:54,094 - With these bomb trains in the mix, 625 00:21:54,095 --> 00:21:56,401 chances of a disaster just went up to 91%. 626 00:21:56,402 --> 00:21:58,403 - Which means... 627 00:21:58,404 --> 00:22:02,450 - When--not if--people die, 628 00:22:02,451 --> 00:22:04,497 it'll be our fault. 629 00:22:07,151 --> 00:22:09,370 [horn blaring] 630 00:22:09,371 --> 00:22:11,764 - A rumor just hit my socials. 631 00:22:11,765 --> 00:22:14,201 Looks like we might be in for some mega delays. 632 00:22:14,202 --> 00:22:17,160 Should we get off at the next stop, rent a car? 633 00:22:17,161 --> 00:22:18,727 - We're still moving. 634 00:22:18,728 --> 00:22:22,341 Do you really want to wrangle all of this off the train? 635 00:22:24,168 --> 00:22:26,213 - And boom. 636 00:22:26,214 --> 00:22:27,606 Kylie magic. 637 00:22:27,607 --> 00:22:29,085 While Cyber goes through the list of everyone 638 00:22:29,086 --> 00:22:31,305 the Marines sold that virus to, at least we can see 639 00:22:31,306 --> 00:22:34,395 if anyone's close to crashing, including those oil trains. 640 00:22:34,396 --> 00:22:35,527 - I hope we can do better than that. 641 00:22:35,528 --> 00:22:36,789 - Laura, I'm glad you could make it. 642 00:22:36,790 --> 00:22:38,356 I'm sorry you lost your job over this. 643 00:22:38,357 --> 00:22:39,922 - Thanks. 644 00:22:39,923 --> 00:22:41,968 - Wait, is that the ARO's internal train tracker? 645 00:22:41,969 --> 00:22:43,056 - Yep. 646 00:22:43,057 --> 00:22:44,492 I'm that good. 647 00:22:44,493 --> 00:22:45,972 - God, there are way more oil trains than I thought. 648 00:22:45,973 --> 00:22:47,190 Why are there so many? 649 00:22:47,191 --> 00:22:48,627 - Good question. 650 00:22:48,628 --> 00:22:50,672 The timing of the PTC hacks is suspicious enough. 651 00:22:50,673 --> 00:22:53,501 Add to that, the hacker is fighting to keep them offline. 652 00:22:53,502 --> 00:22:54,981 Plus, all of these bomb trains. 653 00:22:54,982 --> 00:22:57,940 It makes me wonder, is someone playing against us here? 654 00:22:57,941 --> 00:22:59,725 - Now that I can see where the trains are speeding, 655 00:22:59,726 --> 00:23:01,727 I can forecast which ones are more likely to crash. 656 00:23:01,728 --> 00:23:02,902 - There's no one better than Alec 657 00:23:02,903 --> 00:23:04,773 at talking people into better decisions. 658 00:23:04,774 --> 00:23:08,560 If we can radio the engineers of the most endangered trains, 659 00:23:08,561 --> 00:23:11,214 then maybe he can get them to at least slow down. 660 00:23:11,215 --> 00:23:13,216 - Looks like problem train number 1 is the one 661 00:23:13,217 --> 00:23:15,001 that left 32 minutes late. 662 00:23:15,002 --> 00:23:16,394 The Orlando Express is speeding and will 663 00:23:16,395 --> 00:23:18,613 pass multiple oil trains. 664 00:23:18,614 --> 00:23:19,962 - OK, we start there. 665 00:23:19,963 --> 00:23:24,271 Only that stunt that Alec pulled with Joy Reid 666 00:23:24,272 --> 00:23:26,665 probably ticked off the entire train industry. 667 00:23:26,666 --> 00:23:28,623 They're not gonna be leaping to connect us 668 00:23:28,624 --> 00:23:30,930 with the engineers. 669 00:23:30,931 --> 00:23:34,237 - Hacking into radio signals is the oldest hack in the book. 670 00:23:34,238 --> 00:23:35,979 I'm on it. 671 00:23:38,547 --> 00:23:41,027 OK, so bad thought. 672 00:23:41,028 --> 00:23:44,030 What if this guy just laughs us randos off the line? 673 00:23:44,031 --> 00:23:45,379 - Well, he shouldn't. 674 00:23:45,380 --> 00:23:47,337 Marisa will announce that she's FBI 675 00:23:47,338 --> 00:23:51,254 and give me the legitimacy to cut through any doubts. 676 00:23:51,255 --> 00:23:52,822 - OK, then. 677 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,522 3, 2, 1. 678 00:23:57,523 --> 00:23:59,001 We're live. 679 00:23:59,002 --> 00:24:00,525 - Engineer Chip Parsons, 680 00:24:00,526 --> 00:24:03,528 this is Special Agent Marisa Clark of the FBI. 681 00:24:03,529 --> 00:24:05,921 Do you copy? - Parsons. Copy. 682 00:24:05,922 --> 00:24:08,402 But this is a private channel. Dispatch only. 683 00:24:08,403 --> 00:24:11,840 - Then you can imagine how serious I am contacting you. 684 00:24:11,841 --> 00:24:14,713 I'm investigating the PTC hack, 685 00:24:14,714 --> 00:24:17,846 and there is an imminent crash risk in your area. 686 00:24:17,847 --> 00:24:19,892 We need you to slow way down. 687 00:24:19,893 --> 00:24:21,328 - I'm on a schedule, ma'am. 688 00:24:21,329 --> 00:24:24,331 That's a no-go until I hear from my boss. 689 00:24:24,332 --> 00:24:26,376 - What about your boss's boss? 690 00:24:26,377 --> 00:24:27,682 We've been speaking with the ARO. 691 00:24:27,683 --> 00:24:28,857 Do you know who that is? 692 00:24:28,858 --> 00:24:29,902 - Yes, I do. 693 00:24:29,903 --> 00:24:31,556 - OK, I'm going to give you 694 00:24:31,557 --> 00:24:33,514 to my consultant, Dr. Alec Mercer. 695 00:24:33,515 --> 00:24:35,124 He can fill you in. 696 00:24:35,125 --> 00:24:36,299 - Hi, Chip. 697 00:24:36,300 --> 00:24:38,606 Is it Chip or Parsons? 698 00:24:38,607 --> 00:24:40,216 - Chip's fine. 699 00:24:40,217 --> 00:24:42,392 - I can understand how your head may be spinning 700 00:24:42,393 --> 00:24:44,438 from this PTC situation. 701 00:24:44,439 --> 00:24:45,439 - You're telling me. 702 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:46,962 But all's well here. 703 00:24:46,963 --> 00:24:48,747 We only got PTC on this line four years ago, 704 00:24:48,748 --> 00:24:50,488 and I managed before that. 705 00:24:50,489 --> 00:24:51,924 I'm just running it old-school-- 706 00:24:51,925 --> 00:24:53,708 blocking signal, keeping it safe. 707 00:24:53,709 --> 00:24:55,101 - I'm sure you mean to. 708 00:24:55,102 --> 00:24:58,931 But you're going 20 miles over the limit. 709 00:24:58,932 --> 00:25:01,150 - I've been disciplined for late arrivals. 710 00:25:01,151 --> 00:25:04,458 - I can understand how much pressure you must feel. 711 00:25:04,459 --> 00:25:06,504 But those late arrivals, 712 00:25:06,505 --> 00:25:08,680 I can't imagine that they were on you. 713 00:25:08,681 --> 00:25:09,681 - Of course they weren't. 714 00:25:09,682 --> 00:25:11,160 - That's what I'm saying. 715 00:25:11,161 --> 00:25:13,162 The system is over-stressed, 716 00:25:13,163 --> 00:25:14,599 and it's about to break. 717 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,079 But it doesn't have to break with your train, Chip. 718 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,735 If you slow down until the system settles, 719 00:25:20,736 --> 00:25:22,607 you will arrive late. 720 00:25:22,608 --> 00:25:25,479 But if you don't, your passengers may get hurt. 721 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,482 [tense music] 722 00:25:28,483 --> 00:25:29,831 ♪ 723 00:25:29,832 --> 00:25:30,919 [beeping] 724 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,355 - Damn. Damn it! 725 00:25:32,356 --> 00:25:33,487 - What's going on? 726 00:25:33,488 --> 00:25:34,575 - I'm being diverted. 727 00:25:34,576 --> 00:25:36,577 I--I gotta go. 728 00:25:36,578 --> 00:25:37,709 - He's gone. 729 00:25:37,710 --> 00:25:39,624 Like, radio off gone. 730 00:25:39,625 --> 00:25:40,973 - And he's speeding up. 731 00:25:40,974 --> 00:25:42,714 What is happening? - I don't know. 732 00:25:42,715 --> 00:25:44,498 - ARO ticker says there was an incident 733 00:25:44,499 --> 00:25:46,239 ahead of Chip on the tracks. 734 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,590 A commuter train on Chip's line almost hit a maintenance truck. 735 00:25:49,591 --> 00:25:50,896 I have video of the incident. 736 00:25:50,897 --> 00:25:54,073 [suspenseful music] 737 00:25:54,074 --> 00:25:55,291 - Go, go! 738 00:25:55,292 --> 00:25:57,206 Out of the way, out of the way now! 739 00:25:57,207 --> 00:26:01,776 ♪ 740 00:26:01,777 --> 00:26:03,212 - They switched it just in time. 741 00:26:03,213 --> 00:26:04,562 - Was anyone hurt? 742 00:26:04,563 --> 00:26:05,867 - Ticker says there's no injuries, 743 00:26:05,868 --> 00:26:07,521 but the commuter train did crack an axle 744 00:26:07,522 --> 00:26:09,044 when it sidetracked at that speed. 745 00:26:09,045 --> 00:26:11,525 - Looks like the disabled train is blocking Chip's route. 746 00:26:11,526 --> 00:26:12,613 That's why they diverted him. 747 00:26:12,614 --> 00:26:14,180 - This is nuts. 748 00:26:14,181 --> 00:26:16,008 We have 12 hours until we're out of the danger zone, 749 00:26:16,009 --> 00:26:19,141 and now all of the north- and southbound traffic 750 00:26:19,142 --> 00:26:21,187 are sharing a single set of rails. 751 00:26:21,188 --> 00:26:23,319 - Which means the Orlando Express 752 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:24,930 is almost certainly on a collision course 753 00:26:24,931 --> 00:26:27,062 with one of those bomb trains. 754 00:26:27,063 --> 00:26:28,021 ♪ 755 00:26:31,241 --> 00:26:33,591 - Marisa's got ahold of first responders. 756 00:26:33,592 --> 00:26:35,331 She's readying them for a possible crash. 757 00:26:35,332 --> 00:26:37,203 - Why would they put two trains on an actual collision course? 758 00:26:37,204 --> 00:26:39,379 There has to be a protocol to let them pass. 759 00:26:39,380 --> 00:26:40,641 - There is. 760 00:26:40,642 --> 00:26:41,599 There are side loops off the main track 761 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:42,774 made for passing. 762 00:26:42,775 --> 00:26:45,733 FF-388 will be pulling onto one soon. 763 00:26:45,734 --> 00:26:49,519 Only problem is, this side loop is 3 miles long, 764 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,783 and our bomb train is even longer. 765 00:26:51,784 --> 00:26:53,915 - You're saying that the train's tail 766 00:26:53,916 --> 00:26:55,743 is just gonna hang out on the main track like that? 767 00:26:55,744 --> 00:26:57,440 How is that even a thing? 768 00:26:57,441 --> 00:26:59,573 - There is a maneuver for the trains to pass safely. 769 00:26:59,574 --> 00:27:01,575 FF-388 has to move at just the right time 770 00:27:01,576 --> 00:27:03,664 to let the Orlando Express by. 771 00:27:03,665 --> 00:27:05,840 - That sounds delicate. 772 00:27:05,841 --> 00:27:08,626 - Kylie, who's driving that freight train? 773 00:27:08,627 --> 00:27:11,933 The ARO may say it's safe out there, 774 00:27:11,934 --> 00:27:15,241 but you'd need two experienced engineers to pull that off. 775 00:27:15,242 --> 00:27:18,461 - It looks like it's a Conrad R. Fisher, age 34. 776 00:27:18,462 --> 00:27:21,595 He's only been driving freight trains for all of four months. 777 00:27:21,596 --> 00:27:23,162 - We can't rely on this Conrad 778 00:27:23,163 --> 00:27:25,164 to let the Orlando Express pass by safely, 779 00:27:25,165 --> 00:27:28,471 not with Chip speeding like he is. 780 00:27:28,472 --> 00:27:33,085 We need to get Chip to stop. 781 00:27:33,086 --> 00:27:36,044 [tense music] 782 00:27:36,045 --> 00:27:41,180 ♪ 783 00:27:41,181 --> 00:27:43,486 - [sighs] 784 00:27:43,487 --> 00:27:45,314 - Are you OK? 785 00:27:45,315 --> 00:27:47,273 - What if Willa's right? 786 00:27:47,274 --> 00:27:50,537 We changed the timeline, and now it looks like 787 00:27:50,538 --> 00:27:51,799 those two trains are gonna crash. 788 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,236 - The future isn't written yet, OK? 789 00:27:54,237 --> 00:27:58,676 Whatever happens, we will get through it together. 790 00:27:58,677 --> 00:28:02,027 Right now, I have an idea that I need to go over 791 00:28:02,028 --> 00:28:03,724 with just you. 792 00:28:03,725 --> 00:28:05,204 - Why just me? 793 00:28:05,205 --> 00:28:07,641 - Because it's a very risky Hail Mary. 794 00:28:07,642 --> 00:28:11,123 And if my sister knew what I was up to, 795 00:28:11,124 --> 00:28:13,212 she'd try to stop me. 796 00:28:13,213 --> 00:28:16,171 [tense music] 797 00:28:16,172 --> 00:28:19,871 ♪ 798 00:28:19,872 --> 00:28:21,874 - [sighs] 799 00:28:23,876 --> 00:28:25,833 - Well, in the spirit of long shots, 800 00:28:25,834 --> 00:28:28,009 I called my mom to see if we know anyone 801 00:28:28,010 --> 00:28:30,446 who could help shut down that 100-mile stretch of track. 802 00:28:30,447 --> 00:28:33,232 Turns out, our family divested from our railroad holdings 803 00:28:33,233 --> 00:28:35,364 too long ago to have much influence. 804 00:28:35,365 --> 00:28:39,978 - First, I will never get used to sentences like that. 805 00:28:39,979 --> 00:28:44,112 But seems like we're both in the same boat here. 806 00:28:44,113 --> 00:28:46,767 - Yeah, I feel that. 807 00:28:46,768 --> 00:28:48,856 - Are we just talking about the case? 808 00:28:48,857 --> 00:28:50,989 Because I can't help but feel it's been a little... 809 00:28:50,990 --> 00:28:53,687 - Weird since you came back? 810 00:28:53,688 --> 00:28:55,036 - Exactly. 811 00:28:55,037 --> 00:28:56,516 And I don't want you to feel weird. 812 00:28:56,517 --> 00:28:58,126 - You either. 813 00:28:58,127 --> 00:28:59,606 [soft music] 814 00:28:59,607 --> 00:29:03,566 Riz and I were talking, and, uh, it's a new dynamic. 815 00:29:03,567 --> 00:29:07,005 Would it help if I say that I am intimidated as hell by you? 816 00:29:07,006 --> 00:29:09,398 - What? 817 00:29:09,399 --> 00:29:10,791 No, you're not. 818 00:29:10,792 --> 00:29:12,358 - Are you kidding? 819 00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:15,665 You practically sneezed out that costly altruism idea. 820 00:29:15,666 --> 00:29:18,059 - Simon, I've been doing this for years. 821 00:29:18,060 --> 00:29:20,888 - Oh, so you're saying my insecurity is irrational? 822 00:29:20,889 --> 00:29:24,892 I think Rizwan's feeling it too, by the way. 823 00:29:24,893 --> 00:29:27,112 He isn't sure whether to mediate or defer to you 824 00:29:27,113 --> 00:29:28,243 or what. 825 00:29:28,244 --> 00:29:29,592 - I know. 826 00:29:29,593 --> 00:29:30,811 I know. 827 00:29:30,812 --> 00:29:34,075 - So what do we do? 828 00:29:34,076 --> 00:29:38,340 Can you sneeze again and figure this out? 829 00:29:38,341 --> 00:29:41,604 - I would if I could. 830 00:29:41,605 --> 00:29:44,999 But I promise, with this, 831 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,827 we're all on equal footing. 832 00:29:46,828 --> 00:29:48,221 ♪ 833 00:29:50,310 --> 00:29:52,441 - Cyber finally connected one of the buyers 834 00:29:52,442 --> 00:29:54,269 to the attacks on the PTC. 835 00:29:54,270 --> 00:29:55,836 - Does that mean we caught our hacker? 836 00:29:55,837 --> 00:29:57,838 - The field team is arresting him as we speak. 837 00:29:57,839 --> 00:29:59,622 - George Millton, 838 00:29:59,623 --> 00:30:01,320 AKA VenomToxx. 839 00:30:01,321 --> 00:30:02,712 [tense music] 840 00:30:02,713 --> 00:30:04,453 Who hacks trains? 841 00:30:04,454 --> 00:30:06,281 - I don't have any idea what you're talking about. 842 00:30:06,282 --> 00:30:09,241 - I'm talking about you, George, the kind of person who 843 00:30:09,242 --> 00:30:12,461 uses a computer virus to disrupt a safety system 844 00:30:12,462 --> 00:30:14,202 to make trains crash. 845 00:30:14,203 --> 00:30:16,552 What happened? 846 00:30:16,553 --> 00:30:18,859 Did your dog get hit by a train when you were a kid? 847 00:30:18,860 --> 00:30:20,469 - I told you. 848 00:30:20,470 --> 00:30:21,644 It wasn't me. 849 00:30:21,645 --> 00:30:23,037 - Come on, George. 850 00:30:23,038 --> 00:30:24,822 The Marines you bought it from gave us your name. 851 00:30:24,823 --> 00:30:26,084 - They're lying. 852 00:30:26,085 --> 00:30:27,259 - OK, you really want to play that game? 853 00:30:27,260 --> 00:30:28,738 Because your hacks 854 00:30:28,739 --> 00:30:30,958 are gonna cause a train disaster, 855 00:30:30,959 --> 00:30:32,960 which means that you're not gonna only be 856 00:30:32,961 --> 00:30:35,441 charged with computer fraud. 857 00:30:35,442 --> 00:30:39,619 You'll be charged with homicide and possibly terrorism. 858 00:30:39,620 --> 00:30:40,968 - I'm no terrorist. 859 00:30:40,969 --> 00:30:44,102 - You deployed a military-grade cyber weapon 860 00:30:44,103 --> 00:30:47,845 on a civilian transportation system. 861 00:30:47,846 --> 00:30:49,542 What would you call that? 862 00:30:49,543 --> 00:30:50,935 Is this some kind of message? 863 00:30:50,936 --> 00:30:52,501 What's the agenda? 864 00:30:52,502 --> 00:30:55,635 - I don't have an agenda. 865 00:30:55,636 --> 00:30:57,376 I have a quote. 866 00:30:57,377 --> 00:30:59,378 - You're a work-for-hire? 867 00:30:59,379 --> 00:31:00,509 Who hired you? 868 00:31:00,510 --> 00:31:01,859 - They left an envelope full of cash, 869 00:31:01,860 --> 00:31:04,035 and I didn't ask questions. 870 00:31:04,036 --> 00:31:05,863 They just wanted the PTC boxes down. 871 00:31:05,864 --> 00:31:07,299 - Did they say why? 872 00:31:07,300 --> 00:31:08,474 - I don't know. 873 00:31:08,475 --> 00:31:11,085 - Well, let's start with what you do know. 874 00:31:11,086 --> 00:31:12,652 - [sighs] 875 00:31:12,653 --> 00:31:14,349 - Is that Kylie again? - Yeah. 876 00:31:14,350 --> 00:31:15,960 I'll talk to her after I stop this disaster. 877 00:31:15,961 --> 00:31:17,570 - So how are we doing this? 878 00:31:17,571 --> 00:31:18,876 You said you had a plan? 879 00:31:18,877 --> 00:31:20,399 - I do, but it can't include you, Rizwan. 880 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,531 I need you to stay far away from this. 881 00:31:22,532 --> 00:31:23,881 - What about you? 882 00:31:23,882 --> 00:31:25,230 Professor? 883 00:31:25,231 --> 00:31:26,840 - I'm right where I need to be. 884 00:31:26,841 --> 00:31:29,799 [suspenseful music] 885 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:30,889 ♪ 886 00:31:34,283 --> 00:31:36,676 - Kylie, I need to see what's going on here. 887 00:31:36,677 --> 00:31:37,938 - I found a traffic camera near the crossing. 888 00:31:37,939 --> 00:31:41,246 Just give me a couple seconds to splice into it. 889 00:31:41,247 --> 00:31:45,424 No damn way. 890 00:31:45,425 --> 00:31:47,905 [suspenseful music] 891 00:31:47,906 --> 00:31:49,558 - This is not a good idea. 892 00:31:49,559 --> 00:31:51,734 ♪ 893 00:31:51,735 --> 00:31:53,040 [horn blaring] 894 00:31:53,041 --> 00:31:55,782 - Once again, my brother chooses crazy. 895 00:31:55,783 --> 00:31:57,392 - It's not entirely crazy. 896 00:31:57,393 --> 00:31:58,437 The crossing he's at has 897 00:31:58,438 --> 00:32:00,004 a motion-activated hazard sensor. 898 00:32:00,005 --> 00:32:01,309 So as long as he keeps moving, 899 00:32:01,310 --> 00:32:02,789 it's gonna blast an emergency message 900 00:32:02,790 --> 00:32:04,269 that a person is on the tracks. 901 00:32:04,270 --> 00:32:07,228 The Orlando Express is required to obey that message. 902 00:32:07,229 --> 00:32:08,577 Chip has to stop. 903 00:32:08,578 --> 00:32:10,362 - So you helped him figure out how to do this. 904 00:32:10,363 --> 00:32:11,929 - Well, that spot's a bottleneck. 905 00:32:11,930 --> 00:32:13,974 It should bring all of Line 2 to a halt. 906 00:32:13,975 --> 00:32:15,280 The only problem is-- 907 00:32:15,281 --> 00:32:18,239 - Oh, you only see one problem? 908 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:19,501 - Chip could bet on the professor bailing 909 00:32:19,502 --> 00:32:20,720 and leaping off the tracks 910 00:32:20,721 --> 00:32:21,634 instead of braking the train hard, 911 00:32:21,635 --> 00:32:22,852 risking derailment. 912 00:32:22,853 --> 00:32:24,245 - It's a real life trolley problem. 913 00:32:24,246 --> 00:32:26,378 One man on the tracks to save hundreds. 914 00:32:26,379 --> 00:32:28,554 Very Alec. I'll give him that. 915 00:32:28,555 --> 00:32:30,251 - Chip is irrational. 916 00:32:30,252 --> 00:32:33,124 I mean, if he doesn't stop, Alec could die. 917 00:32:33,125 --> 00:32:34,647 - Well, my forecast put the chances 918 00:32:34,648 --> 00:32:36,257 of the train stopping at 90%. 919 00:32:36,258 --> 00:32:38,477 I was very clear what the other 10% meant. 920 00:32:38,478 --> 00:32:40,044 But he liked his odds. 921 00:32:40,045 --> 00:32:42,002 [tense music] 922 00:32:42,003 --> 00:32:43,917 [horn blaring] 923 00:32:43,918 --> 00:32:45,136 - Chip's alarm has got to be going crazy. 924 00:32:45,137 --> 00:32:46,441 Why isn't he stopping? 925 00:32:46,442 --> 00:32:48,791 [beeping] 926 00:32:48,792 --> 00:32:52,012 [horn blaring] 927 00:32:52,013 --> 00:32:53,883 - He's banking on me to blink. 928 00:32:53,884 --> 00:32:55,189 I'm banking on him. 929 00:32:55,190 --> 00:32:56,408 - Well, one of you is wrong. 930 00:32:56,409 --> 00:32:58,062 - Can he even stop at this point? 931 00:32:58,063 --> 00:32:59,541 Is it too late? 932 00:32:59,542 --> 00:33:01,369 - I can't forecast when it's this close. 933 00:33:01,370 --> 00:33:04,633 [horn blaring] 934 00:33:04,634 --> 00:33:05,895 [beeping] 935 00:33:05,896 --> 00:33:07,506 - Move! Move! Move! 936 00:33:07,507 --> 00:33:09,247 - Brake! 937 00:33:09,248 --> 00:33:10,465 [beeping] 938 00:33:10,466 --> 00:33:14,034 [brakes screeching] 939 00:33:14,035 --> 00:33:21,173 ♪ 940 00:33:35,361 --> 00:33:37,057 - This is the Orlando Express. 941 00:33:37,058 --> 00:33:39,059 We had to make an emergency stop. 942 00:33:39,060 --> 00:33:40,452 Emergency stop. 943 00:33:40,453 --> 00:33:42,019 Line 2 shut down. 944 00:33:42,020 --> 00:33:44,934 Repeat, Line 2 must shut down. 945 00:33:44,935 --> 00:33:50,985 ♪ 946 00:33:56,643 --> 00:33:58,687 - All the trains are stopped. 947 00:33:58,688 --> 00:34:00,211 Gotta love a good traffic jam. 948 00:34:00,212 --> 00:34:01,734 Whew. - So it worked. 949 00:34:01,735 --> 00:34:02,735 Alec didn't die. 950 00:34:02,736 --> 00:34:03,997 The train stopped. 951 00:34:03,998 --> 00:34:06,347 And I only had a minor heart attack. 952 00:34:06,348 --> 00:34:08,393 - When the Orlando Express stopped at that choke point, 953 00:34:08,394 --> 00:34:11,352 dispatch was forced to stop traffic all the way up Line 2. 954 00:34:11,353 --> 00:34:13,180 - Giving us the system reset we need. 955 00:34:13,181 --> 00:34:15,052 - By the time trains are moving again, 956 00:34:15,053 --> 00:34:16,531 Line 1's bridge will be repaired, 957 00:34:16,532 --> 00:34:18,664 and traffic will be restored on both lines. 958 00:34:18,665 --> 00:34:20,492 Plus, you caught the hacker. 959 00:34:20,493 --> 00:34:24,800 - I just keep wondering, if we hadn't had the PTC hack, 960 00:34:24,801 --> 00:34:26,454 would things have gotten so bad? 961 00:34:26,455 --> 00:34:28,065 - No. No way. 962 00:34:28,066 --> 00:34:29,892 PTC was designed to prevent 963 00:34:29,893 --> 00:34:30,980 the situations that happened today. 964 00:34:30,981 --> 00:34:32,112 - That's what I thought. 965 00:34:32,113 --> 00:34:33,896 Millton has no idea who hired him, 966 00:34:33,897 --> 00:34:36,899 but whoever it was also urged him 967 00:34:36,900 --> 00:34:39,641 to keep taking down the PTC boxes, 968 00:34:39,642 --> 00:34:42,166 even when the bomb trains kept entering the system. 969 00:34:42,167 --> 00:34:44,168 - So it was all connected? 970 00:34:44,169 --> 00:34:47,606 Someone did all this counting on a train disaster. 971 00:34:47,607 --> 00:34:49,173 But who would do that? 972 00:34:49,174 --> 00:34:51,871 - Only someone who would see it coming. 973 00:34:51,872 --> 00:34:53,960 I had a hunch, 974 00:34:53,961 --> 00:34:56,223 and I looked into your finances. 975 00:34:56,224 --> 00:34:58,182 Guess what I found. 976 00:34:58,183 --> 00:35:02,055 You made a big play on one of your own forecasts, 977 00:35:02,056 --> 00:35:03,535 but you missed. 978 00:35:03,536 --> 00:35:06,146 You dug yourself a $3 million hole, 979 00:35:06,147 --> 00:35:08,670 and you had to make it up fast. 980 00:35:08,671 --> 00:35:10,933 - Luckily, one bad bet aside, 981 00:35:10,934 --> 00:35:12,413 you're still the best at what you do-- 982 00:35:12,414 --> 00:35:14,763 so good, in fact, that you saw that 983 00:35:14,764 --> 00:35:16,678 the train system was overheated 984 00:35:16,679 --> 00:35:18,811 weeks before Laura did and jumped on it. 985 00:35:18,812 --> 00:35:22,858 - You hired George Millton to take down the PTC system 986 00:35:22,859 --> 00:35:25,339 to guarantee a disaster, 987 00:35:25,340 --> 00:35:28,299 and then you shorted train stocks to profit. 988 00:35:28,300 --> 00:35:31,171 - Only you didn't foresee me. 989 00:35:31,172 --> 00:35:33,434 ♪ 990 00:35:33,435 --> 00:35:35,044 - You can't prove any of that. 991 00:35:35,045 --> 00:35:36,437 - Oh, but we can. 992 00:35:36,438 --> 00:35:38,265 Along the way, you made a mistake. 993 00:35:38,266 --> 00:35:41,268 You said you watched me on PBS. 994 00:35:41,269 --> 00:35:42,748 It didn't register then. 995 00:35:42,749 --> 00:35:45,403 But then when I knew that we were looking 996 00:35:45,404 --> 00:35:50,756 for a forecaster, it hit me. 997 00:35:50,757 --> 00:35:54,412 My PBS talk was about panic triggers. 998 00:35:54,413 --> 00:35:57,241 That's why you urged me to go on the news 999 00:35:57,242 --> 00:35:59,199 about an imminent crash 1000 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:00,983 because you were banking on 1001 00:36:00,984 --> 00:36:02,724 the resulting panic to cause one. 1002 00:36:02,725 --> 00:36:04,639 Good thing it didn't work. 1003 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,293 - That's not evidence. 1004 00:36:06,294 --> 00:36:09,035 - No, but we have your computer now 1005 00:36:09,036 --> 00:36:11,646 with your private forecasts, 1006 00:36:11,647 --> 00:36:17,261 including one that says adding bomb trains to the system 1007 00:36:17,262 --> 00:36:19,654 will increase the disaster odds. 1008 00:36:19,655 --> 00:36:22,875 - Not only that--the oil exec who ordered the bomb trains 1009 00:36:22,876 --> 00:36:24,398 said you called with a prediction 1010 00:36:24,399 --> 00:36:25,965 that fuel prices were about to rise. 1011 00:36:25,966 --> 00:36:27,619 And if he wanted to win, 1012 00:36:27,620 --> 00:36:29,751 he would have to move that oil fast. 1013 00:36:29,752 --> 00:36:34,452 - So you can deny it if you want, but we got you. 1014 00:36:34,453 --> 00:36:38,325 - You could have killed hundreds. 1015 00:36:38,326 --> 00:36:43,156 - And now I predict that you're gonna go to prison. 1016 00:36:43,157 --> 00:36:50,295 ♪ 1017 00:36:54,299 --> 00:36:57,997 - So I've thought about our problem. 1018 00:36:57,998 --> 00:37:00,391 - That we ordered too many fries? 1019 00:37:00,392 --> 00:37:01,783 Sorry, I'm deflecting. 1020 00:37:01,784 --> 00:37:03,959 You mean the not knowing where we all fit 1021 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,787 now that you're back situation? 1022 00:37:05,788 --> 00:37:07,528 - Give that man a fry. 1023 00:37:07,529 --> 00:37:09,182 - Mm. 1024 00:37:09,183 --> 00:37:12,011 - The thing is, in light of the forecasting case, 1025 00:37:12,012 --> 00:37:14,753 I think our answer might be easier than we think. 1026 00:37:14,754 --> 00:37:16,189 We have to live in the discomfort. 1027 00:37:16,190 --> 00:37:17,321 - Ew. 1028 00:37:17,322 --> 00:37:18,365 That sounds-- 1029 00:37:18,366 --> 00:37:19,932 - Uncomfortable, I know. 1030 00:37:19,933 --> 00:37:21,847 But if I took anything from watching Laura work, 1031 00:37:21,848 --> 00:37:24,719 it's that we need data to look ahead. 1032 00:37:24,720 --> 00:37:27,244 And right now, we don't have much. 1033 00:37:27,245 --> 00:37:28,506 - I guess that's true. 1034 00:37:28,507 --> 00:37:30,029 I mean, you just got back. 1035 00:37:30,030 --> 00:37:32,205 I know I've changed since you were here last. 1036 00:37:32,206 --> 00:37:35,034 And every day with Simon is brand new. 1037 00:37:35,035 --> 00:37:36,383 - Aw, buddy. 1038 00:37:36,384 --> 00:37:37,776 [glasses clinking] 1039 00:37:37,777 --> 00:37:39,256 - That's why I think our best path 1040 00:37:39,257 --> 00:37:41,519 is to experiment, try out different roles, 1041 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,695 and muddle to what works. 1042 00:37:43,696 --> 00:37:46,263 To figuring it out together. 1043 00:37:46,264 --> 00:37:48,613 - To our newest Mercer-nary. 1044 00:37:48,614 --> 00:37:50,267 - Oh, also, that name must die. 1045 00:37:50,268 --> 00:37:52,573 Non-negotiable. I will pull legacy rank. 1046 00:37:52,574 --> 00:37:54,183 - Fine. 1047 00:37:54,184 --> 00:37:56,534 How about The Mercerfuls? 1048 00:37:56,535 --> 00:37:57,796 - [laughs] - Oh, no, I got it. 1049 00:37:57,797 --> 00:37:59,450 I got it. The Professornals. 1050 00:37:59,451 --> 00:38:00,755 - Mm-mm. [laughter] 1051 00:38:00,756 --> 00:38:02,540 - Come on. That one's--that one's good. 1052 00:38:02,541 --> 00:38:04,890 - I know I can be stubborn, 1053 00:38:04,891 --> 00:38:06,761 but I have to hand it to you two. 1054 00:38:06,762 --> 00:38:10,156 A lot of people are alive because you acted. 1055 00:38:10,157 --> 00:38:11,766 - Does this mean, when lives are at stake, 1056 00:38:11,767 --> 00:38:13,855 HDP will intervene from now on? 1057 00:38:13,856 --> 00:38:15,335 - I can't promise that. 1058 00:38:15,336 --> 00:38:18,730 But maybe it's not always/never either. 1059 00:38:18,731 --> 00:38:20,906 One thing I'm 100% on-- 1060 00:38:20,907 --> 00:38:23,125 I never should have fired Laura. 1061 00:38:23,126 --> 00:38:25,606 - Willa has invited me back to HDP, 1062 00:38:25,607 --> 00:38:27,260 this time in a leadership position. 1063 00:38:27,261 --> 00:38:30,568 - With Zed gone, I need a strong partner 1064 00:38:30,569 --> 00:38:32,918 to challenge me now and then. 1065 00:38:32,919 --> 00:38:34,267 - That's a smart move. 1066 00:38:34,268 --> 00:38:36,530 There's a lot of spectators in the world, 1067 00:38:36,531 --> 00:38:38,271 but not enough heroes. 1068 00:38:38,272 --> 00:38:41,187 And it doesn't take an ultra-forecaster 1069 00:38:41,188 --> 00:38:43,494 to envision an important future for you. 1070 00:38:43,495 --> 00:38:45,496 And once you're settled in, 1071 00:38:45,497 --> 00:38:47,715 maybe I can even get that meeting 1072 00:38:47,716 --> 00:38:49,282 with the partners on the books. 1073 00:38:49,283 --> 00:38:50,936 - You got a deal. 1074 00:38:50,937 --> 00:38:54,332 Oh, and I almost forgot. 1075 00:38:55,855 --> 00:38:58,639 Peace offering. 1076 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,859 - You forecasted my scar surgery. 1077 00:39:00,860 --> 00:39:03,731 - It's the very least I could do, given everything. 1078 00:39:03,732 --> 00:39:05,298 So take a look. 1079 00:39:05,299 --> 00:39:07,692 Call me if you have any questions. 1080 00:39:07,693 --> 00:39:10,651 But if you want the, um, the TL;DR... 1081 00:39:10,652 --> 00:39:13,741 - Mm? - "Too long; didn't read." 1082 00:39:13,742 --> 00:39:15,874 - The report says, "Do it." 1083 00:39:15,875 --> 00:39:19,181 [light percussive music] 1084 00:39:19,182 --> 00:39:26,146 ♪ 1085 00:39:34,981 --> 00:39:37,896 [solemn music] 1086 00:39:37,897 --> 00:39:43,467 ♪ 1087 00:39:43,468 --> 00:39:44,859 - I know what you're gonna say. 1088 00:39:44,860 --> 00:39:47,732 - Oh, so you also know that I'm still going to. 1089 00:39:47,733 --> 00:39:49,342 ♪ 1090 00:39:49,343 --> 00:39:53,172 You keep cutting it close and surviving. 1091 00:39:53,173 --> 00:39:54,652 But that doesn't mean that you can keep 1092 00:39:54,653 --> 00:39:56,436 doing dangerous things. 1093 00:39:56,437 --> 00:39:58,438 ♪ 1094 00:39:58,439 --> 00:40:03,443 - I have fallen victim 1095 00:40:03,444 --> 00:40:07,186 to a faulty learning cycle. 1096 00:40:07,187 --> 00:40:11,277 And I'll be more careful in the future. 1097 00:40:11,278 --> 00:40:13,584 Speaking of, 1098 00:40:13,585 --> 00:40:19,677 I got the weather forecast for my maybe scar surgery. 1099 00:40:19,678 --> 00:40:23,158 The odds are 91% in favor, 1100 00:40:23,159 --> 00:40:26,553 even factoring in my opioid addiction. 1101 00:40:26,554 --> 00:40:29,469 - So you're doing it? 1102 00:40:29,470 --> 00:40:31,602 ♪ 1103 00:40:31,603 --> 00:40:37,695 - No, I'm not, at least not now. 1104 00:40:37,696 --> 00:40:40,654 - You don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of maybe. 1105 00:40:40,655 --> 00:40:43,831 - Eh, that's part of it. 1106 00:40:43,832 --> 00:40:45,746 But when it comes to making decisions, 1107 00:40:45,747 --> 00:40:48,270 forecasting is just another tool. 1108 00:40:48,271 --> 00:40:51,796 It can point to maybe doing a brave thing, 1109 00:40:51,797 --> 00:40:53,232 like what Laura did. 1110 00:40:53,233 --> 00:40:54,886 But ultimately, we have to be comfortable 1111 00:40:54,887 --> 00:40:59,891 with our decisions, and I'm simply not. 1112 00:40:59,892 --> 00:41:04,069 All that is to say, 1113 00:41:04,070 --> 00:41:08,116 I'd rather focus on where I am now 1114 00:41:08,117 --> 00:41:14,558 than on where I hope to be someday. 1115 00:41:14,559 --> 00:41:16,516 - I like that. 1116 00:41:16,517 --> 00:41:18,257 - [sighs] 1117 00:41:18,258 --> 00:41:20,607 [laughs] 1118 00:41:20,608 --> 00:41:24,916 Good, 'cause I do too. 1119 00:41:24,917 --> 00:41:30,443 - You know, I think I'll also take my comfort 1120 00:41:30,444 --> 00:41:36,362 into consideration, and mine's saying, 1121 00:41:36,363 --> 00:41:40,627 put 24-hour armed security on your brother. 1122 00:41:40,628 --> 00:41:42,629 - [laughs] 1123 00:41:42,630 --> 00:41:47,983 ♪ 1124 00:41:50,551 --> 00:41:53,466 [tense music] 1125 00:41:53,467 --> 00:42:00,474 ♪